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RESEARCH PAPER

Defense Contract Announcements (Global; US Returns): Return Analysis

February 11, 2026

Executive Summary

We study how US-listed equities react to global defense contract announcements. Using TenderAlpha announcements mapped to US-listed equities and FactSet-based close-to-close returns, we measure market-adjusted post-announcement performance over 3- and 5-trading-day windows. The broad response is mildly positive, but the signal concentrates in a few corners: (i) contracts that are large relative to issuer market cap, (ii) Army awards, and (iii) short-duration deals (≤1 year).

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